Croatia’s Tourism in 2025: Modest Growth Sets Stage for Ambitious 2026 Push

ZAGREB (TRI) — Croatia’s tourism sector in 2025 delivered steady, if unspectacular, growth amid a backdrop of economic pressures and shifting global dynamics, with foreign arrivals edging up modestly and the industry continuing to anchor the national economy. Data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics and the Croatian National Tourist Board (CNTB) indicate that tourism contributed around 20-26% of GDP, underscoring its role as a vital lifeline for the Adriatic nation. As Croatia eyes 2026 with bold plans—including enhanced premium offerings, sustainability initiatives, and OECD membership aspirations—industry leaders are optimistic about achieving record highs, potentially surpassing 2025’s 17.1 million foreign visitors in the first 10 months alone.

This comprehensive report analyzes 2025 performance, drawing on official statistics, while exploring strategic shifts for 2026 that aim to diversify beyond mass tourism and address overtourism concerns.

Solid Foundations in 2025: Arrivals, Revenue, and Economic Impact

Croatia welcomed approximately 17.1 million foreign tourists in the first 10 months of 2025, a 1.4% increase from the same period in 2024, according to the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. This figure builds on a strong summer season, with total arrivals for the year projected to exceed 18-19 million, approaching or matching pre-pandemic levels. The Trading Economics data highlights that tourist arrivals have remained robust, averaging over 1.3 million monthly since 1999, with seasonal peaks driving the bulk of activity.

Revenue from tourism reached new heights, with projections estimating a market value of around US$1.22 billion for the Travel & Tourism segment in 2025, according to Statista. This aligns with broader economic contributions: tourism accounted for roughly 26.4% of GDP in 2024 (up from 25.8% in 2023), a trend that likely continued into 2025 amid record foreign revenues and employment in the sector. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted in its 2025 Article IV Consultation that tourism exports, while declining slightly as a share of GDP due to other sectors’ growth, remained a key stabilizer for the services balance.

Regionally, coastal areas like Dubrovnik, Split, and Istria dominated, benefiting from cruise traffic and beach tourism. Inland regions, including Zagreb and Plitvice Lakes, saw upticks in cultural and nature-based visits. Employment in tourism-related industries hit record levels, with wages also rising, as highlighted by The International in September 2025. S&P Global’s ratings affirmation in September 2025 projected 3.2% economic growth for the year, partly driven by tourism investments.

Challenges Faced in 2025: Overtourism, Regulations, and External Pressures

Despite positive metrics, 2025 brought hurdles. Overtourism in hotspots like Dubrovnik prompted regulatory responses, including new legislation in late 2024 restricting short-term rentals in high-demand areas. This aimed to alleviate housing shortages and preserve local communities, but it also sparked debates over balancing growth with sustainability.

Economic factors, such as inflation and a strengthening euro (Croatia adopted the euro in 2023), made the destination pricier for some markets, potentially capping arrivals growth at just 1.4% through October. Geopolitical tensions in Europe, including the ongoing Ukraine conflict, influenced visitor sentiment, though Croatia’s EU membership provided stability. Wikipedia notes tourism’s historical GDP share of 10-15%, but 2025 estimates from RoadGenius push it higher at 26.4%, exposing vulnerabilities to external shocks.

Seasonality remained an issue, with 2023 data (as a baseline) showing 16.2 million arrivals and 88.5 million overnight stays through August—up modestly from prior years but concentrated in summer months. Full-year projections suggest the country could approach or exceed 21 million visitors, surpassing pre-pandemic highs. Tourist nights also rose, reflecting longer stays driven by diverse offerings from coastal resorts to inland heritage sites.

Revenue figures were equally impressive. The sector is estimated to have generated around €15-16 billion in 2025, up from previous years, with projections from Statista indicating US$1.22 billion specifically in the travel and tourism market segment. This growth contributed approximately 26.4% to GDP, a slight increase from 25.8% in 2024, highlighting tourism’s outsized role in the economy. Employment in the sector reached record levels, with wages and jobs in hospitality rising amid high demand.

Seasonal trends showed peaks in summer months, with August alone seeing strong influxes from key markets like Germany, Slovenia, and Italy. Coastal regions dominated: Dubrovnik-Neretva County and Split-Dalmatia saw the bulk of visitors, drawn to UNESCO sites like Dubrovnik’s old town and the Plitvice Lakes National Park. Inland areas, including Zagreb, benefited from cultural tourism, with events like the Advent market boosting off-season arrivals.

Overseas markets recovered steadily, though U.S. and Asian visitors lagged behind European counterparts. The Croatian National Tourist Board reported enhanced marketing efforts targeting premium segments, which helped offset any slowdowns in mass tourism.

Challenges in 2025: Overtourism and Economic Pressures

Despite the boom, 2025 exposed vulnerabilities. Overtourism strained popular spots like Dubrovnik and Hvar, leading to local protests and calls for caps on cruise ships. Environmental concerns, including water shortages and waste management on islands, prompted parliamentary action on short-term rentals. Inflation and rising operational costs also impacted affordability, with some analysts noting a dip in budget travel.

Geopolitical factors, such as regional tensions in the Balkans and global economic slowdowns, affected long-haul arrivals. The IMF noted a decline in tourism exports as a share of GDP in broader analyses, though Croatia’s figures remained resilient. Additionally, the strong euro (Croatia adopted it in 2023) made the destination pricier for non-eurozone visitors.

Outlook for 2026: Premium Push and Sustainable Strategies

Croatia enters 2026 with ambitious goals, aiming for record arrivals and revenues through targeted investments. The CNTB has increased its budget for premium tourism, digital promotion, and sustainable development, focusing on year-round offerings to reduce seasonality. Projections suggest a 5.56% annual growth rate in travel and tourism revenue from 2025 to 2030, potentially reaching new highs.

Key strategies include:

• Premium and Sustainable Focus: Aiming for a €3 billion boost from high-end tourism, the government plans to enhance luxury accommodations and experiences, such as yachting in the Adriatic and wine tours in Istria. New regulations on holiday rentals in high-demand areas will promote quality over quantity, emphasizing “slow travel” with traditions like “pomalo” (relaxed lifestyle) and eco-friendly practices.
• Event-Driven Growth: 2026 will feature major events, including cultural festivals and sports tournaments, to attract diverse visitors. The CNTB’s digital marketing push, including FITUR participation, targets emerging markets like Asia and the U.S.
• Infrastructure and Dispersion: Investments in rural and inland tourism aim to ease coastal pressure, with plans for better connectivity and green initiatives aligning with EU sustainability goals. OECD membership ambitions could further enhance Croatia’s appeal as a stable, innovative destination.
• Marketing and Innovation: The hospitality market is set for growth through 2033, with strategies emphasizing blue economy and nature tourism. Trends like deeper itineraries and fewer hotel changes will cater to 2026 travelers seeking meaningful experiences.

Risks include potential overtourism backlash and external shocks, but with a focus on balanced growth, experts predict 2026 could see 22-23 million arrivals.

A Mediterranean Leader Evolving

Croatia’s 2025 tourism success, with record arrivals and substantial GDP contributions, sets a strong foundation for 2026. By prioritizing premium, sustainable strategies, the sector aims to sustain growth while addressing challenges. As travelers seek authentic, eco-conscious destinations, Croatia’s Adriatic allure positions it for continued prominence.