WASHINGTON (TRI) — The United States tourism sector in 2025 presented a tale of two markets: robust domestic travel driving economic gains while international inbound arrivals suffered a significant downturn, influenced by policy shifts, global sentiment, and economic factors. According to year-end data from the U.S. Travel Association and the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), total travel spending approached $1.35 trillion, buoyed by American consumers’ continued enthusiasm for leisure trips despite broader economic headwinds.
Preliminary figures indicate that while domestic trips surpassed pre-pandemic levels in volume and frequency, international visitor numbers fell short of expectations, marking the first annual decline since 2020. This report examines key metrics, including arrivals, spending, regional impacts, and emerging trends, drawing on data from government sources, industry analyses, and economic forecasts.
Domestic Travel: A Pillar of Strength
Domestic tourism emerged as the backbone of the U.S. travel industry in 2025, with Americans taking an estimated 2.43 billion trips—a level exceeding 2019 benchmarks by 1-2%. The U.S. Travel Association’s fall forecast highlighted a 1.9% growth in domestic leisure spending to $895 billion, reflecting sustained demand for road trips, family vacations, and short getaways amid rising costs for international travel.
Air travel data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics showed domestic enplanements (boardings) for scheduled passenger flights reaching seasonal highs, with August alone recording strong volumes despite a soft comparison to hurricane-affected periods in 2024. Consumer surveys underscored this trend: 94% of American travelers planned trips within six months as of April, up from prior years, driven by flexible work arrangements and a preference for familiar destinations.
Popular domestic hotspots included Florida, California, New York, Nevada (Las Vegas), and Hawaii, with emerging interest in Michigan and Nashville among younger demographics. Gen Z travelers, in particular, favored sustainable and tech-enabled experiences, with 89% using platforms like TikTok for inspiration. Business travel also rebounded modestly, with spending up 1.4% overall—group meetings growing slightly faster than individual transient trips. This domestic surge helped offset international weaknesses, contributing over 90% of total tourism revenue and supporting 15-20 million jobs nationwide.
International Inbound: A Year of Decline
In contrast, international arrivals to the U.S. experienced a marked slowdown in 2025, with final estimates projecting around 67.9-72 million visitors—a 6.3-8.2% drop from 72.4 million in 2024. This reversed earlier optimistic forecasts from the NTTO, which had anticipated 77.1 million arrivals before policy changes and sentiment issues took hold.
Monthly data revealed the trajectory: Arrivals dipped 14% in March compared to 2024, with overseas visitation down 11.6% that month. By July, year-to-date overseas declines reached 1.6%, escalating to a 2.6% drop through November. Key source markets suffered: Canada saw a 26% annual decline in overnight land trips and 14% in air travel by March, while Mexico’s air visitors fell 23%. Western Europe dropped 17% in March—the first decline since 2021—and Asia remained 25% below 2019 levels.
Border cities and states reliant on Canadian and Mexican visitors, such as Seattle (down 26.9%), Portland (18.3%), and Detroit (17.3%), felt the impact most acutely. Some positives emerged: Florida remained the top destination for international visitors in March, and states like those hosting events saw upticks despite the national trend. Overall, inbound remained at 85-91% of 2019 levels, far from full recovery.
February was the quietest month with 4.64 million arrivals, while peak seasons saw volumes at major airports like JFK (handling 34.8 million annually) and LAX (23.4 million). Experts attribute the slump to visa restrictions, a new $250 “visa integrity fee,” tariff threats, immigration enforcement, and negative global perceptions, leading travelers to alternatives like Canada, Mexico, and Europe.
Revenues and Economic Impact
Total U.S. travel and tourism revenue is projected at $223-234 billion for 2025, with domestic sources dominating at around 70% of the market by user penetration. International visitor spending, however, declined sharply: From a record $126.9 billion in the first half (up 3.5% from 2018 peaks), full-year estimates fell to $169 billion—a $12-15 billion drop from initial projections of $179-184 billion. This represents a 3.2-7% year-over-year decrease, equating to $8.3-12.5 billion in lost exports.
Spending breakdowns show education, health-related tourism, and short-term worker expenditures at $6.4 billion in February alone (up 9%), comprising 30% of exports. Airfares to U.S. carriers totaled $3.3 billion that month (down 3%). Overall, tourism contributed $2.6-2.9 trillion to GDP (including indirect effects) and supported over 20 million jobs, but the international shortfall risked $21 billion in exports if trends persisted. The sector’s trade surplus narrowed, with outbound U.S. tourism valued at $224 billion.
Trends and Challenges
Sustainability gained traction, with 83% of travelers prioritizing eco-friendly practices. Digital tools shaped planning: Mobile drove 57% of bookings, and AI assisted Gen Z in cost-saving. Challenges included rising accommodation prices, airline profits up 15% per passenger, and overtourism debates. Policy impacts—expanded travel bans effective January 1, 2026, and enhanced border tech—loomed large, potentially exacerbating 2025’s sentiment-driven losses.
The U.S. lost market share globally, dropping to 4.2% of international arrivals, with competitors like China (+10.3%) and Colombia benefiting. Events like the solar eclipse and music tours offered bright spots, but broader recovery hinged on addressing perceptions.
Outlook for 2026 and Beyond
Looking ahead, the U.S. Travel Association forecasts 3.7% growth in inbound arrivals to around 70.4 million in 2026, aided by events like the FIFA World Cup co-hosting and America 250 celebrations. Total arrivals could reach 85 million, with spending rebounding to $190-198 billion. Domestic growth is expected at 1.8%, pushing overall revenue toward $1.4 trillion. However, sustaining momentum requires policy reforms to rebuild global confidence, as the WTTC warns of prolonged vulnerabilities without action.
For the latest data, consult the U.S. Travel Association, NTTO, or Bureau of Transportation Statistics. As the industry navigates 2026, balancing domestic vigor with international revival will be key to reclaiming pre-pandemic highs.
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