Canadian Boycott Delivers $5.7B Sting to U.S. Tourism—And It’s Not Slowing Down

As cross-border tensions simmer under renewed Trump-era policies, the U.S. travel sector is reeling from a boycott that’s hitting where it hurts most: the wallet. The U.S. Travel Association’s Fall 2025 Travel Forecast paints a stark picture, projecting inbound international spending to dip 3.2% this year—to $173.2 billion from $178.9 billion in 2024—translating to a staggering $5.7 billion loss. And the prime culprit? A sharp decline in Canadian visitors, the U.S.’s largest source of international tourists, who accounted for $20.5 billion in spending last year alone. This isn’t just a blip; it’s the first drop in international arrivals since 2020, with visits forecasted to fall 6.3% to 67.9 million overall.

The boycott kicked off in earnest after President Trump’s January 2025 return, fueled by aggressive tariffs on Canadian goods, offhand remarks about annexing Canada as the “51st state,” and broader unease over U.S. political rhetoric. Data from Statistics Canada shows visits plummeting 23% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to 2024, with air trips down 24% and vehicle crossings off 30% in October—the 10th consecutive month of declines. An Angus Reid Institute poll from late October underscores the sentiment: 70% of Canadians report feeling uncomfortable traveling south this winter, citing a desire to “stand up for Canada” and concerns over the U.S. political climate. Earlier surveys painted a similar trend—48% of Canadians had already canceled or delayed U.S. plans by mid-February, contributing to an estimated $3 billion CAD in early losses.

This isn’t just numbers on a spreadsheet; it’s a gut punch to frontline destinations and economies. Canadians, who make up about 25% of all foreign visitors, have long been the lifeblood of U.S. tourism, flocking to spots like Florida beaches, New York shops, and Vegas casinos. Now, those voids are glaring. Las Vegas, where Canadians once dropped $1 billion annually, saw Mayor Shelley Berkley issue a public plea in September for visitors to return amid slumping hotel occupancy and softening gaming revenue. New York City reports a 20% drop in Canadian arrivals, hitting Times Square’s energy and Broadway’s box office; Orlando’s theme parks, including Disney, are quieter without the familiar maple leaf accents, with a 15% decline in international family packages. Even border towns like Buffalo and Sarnia feel the pinch—fewer shoppers mean empty malls and strained local taxes.

The economic ripples are profound. Travel and tourism supports 9.5 million U.S. jobs, and experts warn that even a 10% sustained drop in Canadian inbound could jeopardize 140,000 positions in hospitality, from hotel staff to tour guides. Reduced hotel stays are already curbing labor demand and municipal revenues, as noted by industry analysts. On a macro level, the U.S. is staring down a travel trade deficit nearing $70 billion for 2025, as outbound American trips continue to rise while inbound falters. Black Friday and holiday seasons loom as potential flashpoints: Retailers in Florida and Michigan ski resorts brace for silent slopes and sparse aisles, with shopping trips already down 34% year-over-year.

Compounding the pain? A U.S. government shutdown since early October has snarled flights and visa processing, amplifying boycott effects with canceled international routes. On X, the backlash is raw and unfiltered. One user vented, “Tourism has collapsed—all bc of Trump,” linking it to wider boycotts on U.S. products like bourbon. Another quipped amid FAA chaos: “You really can’t ask for worse government.” Echoing the movement, posts rally: “The boycott America has become a Canadian movement… DON’T GO!”—garnering thousands of likes and shares. Skeptics counter that a weak loonie plays a role, but polls tie the drop squarely to politics.

Desperate for a turnaround, U.S. states are rolling out the red carpet. California’s tourism board jetted to Toronto this month with Canada-focused campaigns, highlighting new eco-lodges and waived fees—yet visits there are down 19%, costing $700 million. Palm Springs erected “Palm Springs Loves Canada” signs, touting $300 million in annual spending from northern neighbors. The U.S. Travel Association launched a “Canadian Welcome Pass” offering perks like priority entry and discounts at 500+ attractions. President Trump dismissed the furor in October, insisting the “Canadian tourism problem would be worked out” amid “great love between the two countries.” But with 70% discomfort levels holding steady, reassurance feels hollow.

For the U.S. industry, this is a wake-up call: Politics and passports are now travel deal-breakers, eroding America’s post-pandemic recovery and global appeal. A rebound is eyed for 2026, buoyed by the FIFA World Cup and America 250 celebrations, but until bridges—literal and figurative—mend, the boycott’s bite will linger, threatening jobs, revenues, and relations north of the border. What’s your take—boycott booster or border blues?